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Background: Installations such as airports, military bases, and logistics hubs are increasingly vulnerable to disruptions from extreme weather, rising sea levels, and targeted cyber-physical attacks. These hazards often occur simultaneously or in rapid succession, creating compound extreme disruptions that can overwhelm traditional resilience planning approaches. Current risk assessment methods typically analyze individual systems in isolation, failing to capture the complex interdependencies that exist between different infrastructure components. The cascading effects of failures in interconnected systems can lead to catastrophic outcomes that are not predicted by conventional modeling approaches.
Technical Overview: Through a collaboration between Northeastern University, University of California Berkeley and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, researchers have created the MNS-MSD technology, which integrates Multiplex Network Science (MNS) with Multiscale System Dynamics (MSD) modeling. The approach provides a comprehensive framework for analyzing the resilience of interdependent installations and infrastructure under compound extreme disruptions. The technology captures complex interactions between multiple systems and scales, from individual components to entire installation networks. The modeling framework enables decision-makers to understand cascading failure patterns and develop more effective resilience strategies.
Benefits:
- Captures interactions and dependencies of multiple systems that are missed when modeled in isolation
- Enables comprehensive analysis of compound extreme disruptions
- Provides predictive capabilities for cascading failure scenarios
- Supports development of more effective resilience strategies
- Scalable framework applicable to various installation types
Application:
- Public infrastructure resilience planning
- Defense installations functionality assurance
- Supply chain resilience assessment
- Critical infrastructure protection
Opportunity:
